Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Happy 1974

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

For years, Detroit’s Big 3 have churned out umpteen types of large pickups and SUVs, and mroe or less outsourced their small car programs - releasing half-assed attempts of their own, or selling rebadged versions of other cars from Suzuki, Daewoo, and others. If any critics ever questioned them about this long-term strategy, they blew them off and said that people will always need the trucks, and therefore, the market was pretty secure, so that's where they'll focus their business. So they continued to develop and market 12-mpg Suburbans and Expeditions, and hoped for the best.

People will always need something, and pay through the nose for it. Isn’t that what they used to say about housing?

It looks like May 2008 may have been a watershed moment in the auto industry. For the first time since the late 1970s, the best selling vehicle in the U.S. wasn’t the Ford F-Series or Chevy Silverado. Not even a Dodge Ram.

It was the lowly Honda Civic, with monthly sales of 53,299.

So the Ford was in second, right? Nope. Second was the Toyota Corolla, at 52,826.

Third was the Toyota Camry, at 51,291. Fourth was the Honda Accord with 43,728.

The F-series is back in fifth, with monthly sales of 42,973. The Silverado is down to 6th, at 37,020. That’s less than half of what they were selling just a few years ago.

Mom went car shopping a few days ago, she had a hard time finding Hondas and Toyotas she could drive. No wonder.

Now, imagine how things would look if over the last 10 years, Detroit had taken at least some of the money poured into development of trucks and spent it on cars instead. I mean GM and Ford each have maybe one or two decent, competitive cars for sale. But that’s stacked against the dozen or so truck models each one has sitting in their showrooms.

This week, both companies have announced massive layoffs, and factory closings, in an attempt to counter the reality that they’re selling ice cream during a blizzard.

It would be sad, if they hadn’t gone through the exact same thing in the 1970s when gas prices spiked and they had showrooms full of full size vehicles that no one wanted to buy. The Japanese automakers, however, had showrooms full of fuel efficient cars for sale, and sold as many as they could.

All they could do was damage control - and close plants and layoff scores of workers, who paid the price for their employer’s poor business decisions. But then gas prices stabilized, and they decided to give up on the small cars that they had never really figured out anyway, went back to business as usual, and started the cycle all over again.


4 comments:

atomicbird said...

It's all true. I worked for Ford through most of the 1990s, in their microelectronics division, and saw the kind of trouble you describe-- they just couldn't, or didn't want to understand that there it might be worth doing serious development that wasn't either a truck or a truck-based SUV. They'd hold "town meetings" once in a while which would include Q&A with the local honcho, and every so often someone would ask about it. The answers were more or less as you describe-- they didn't see any market in smaller stuff, or the potential of this market developing.

Their overseas divisions seem to get it; Ford Europe has some decent small models. And therein lies a tale. Back in the mid-nineties I wanted a decent, relatively small station wagon, ideally with all-wheel drive. At about this time Ford was introducing the Mondeo in Europe. It looked ideal, based on the British dealer brochure I got a look at. I held off for a couple of years waiting for the Mondeo to reach the USA, but when it did it was the Ford Contour. Sedan only, no AWD, carefully marketed so as not to interfere with truck-style vehicles. So I bought a Subaru instead, because unlike my employer they actually made something I wanted to drive. The Contour flopped after a few years due to lack of interest from Ford USA, but meanwhile the Mondeo's still around

Brian said...

That is what makes it worse, we here in the US ignored European markets and the "growing pains" they went through years before us. When they and Japan tried to "show us the way" "we" ignored even when our public alerted the powers that be. It is kind of an arrogance on all levels - there are Americans who find "American Pride" and don't want to be like the "Sissy Europeans" and but a truck - trying to promote the "American Lifestyle" to shun all things "Non-American" thinking that pride will win out over money. Even now, when it hits the public in the pocket, the corporations he to give in and in the process add a little more fuel to the economic fire because of a lack of vision due only to arrogance and not ignorance.

Unknown said...

Maybe, hopefully, this will force them to start bringing some of the cool smaller cars that we never get over here. But will it do any good at this point? They've got a massive image problem, that they don't offer economical cars to the American public. (and to a large extent, they don't) By the time they get over that, how much worse will their books look?

Personally, I'd love one of the new Mondeos, they look very nice and are supposed to drive pretty well. But nah, they offer the so-so Fusion instead. It's like they're almost playing to lose.

Gigamatt said...

As TheSis just txt'd me, "Don't you wish you still had your Geo?"

*sigh* or my dad's Beretta, which always got around 35mpg. Or either of his Chevettes, which always did well, too.

Actually, I'm quite happy to say that when they ditched the minivan (18-20mpg), they found something with cargo-room and fold-down seats, which also has great mileage and (according to Dad) a great safety rating: the Chevy HHR. He's consistently getting 35mpg again, and couldnt be happier.

I've got 2 years left to pay on the truck, so I may be finding alternate ways to work if gas keeps going up. A ZootScoots shop just went in down the street...